Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?
The outcome will be determined using data as provided by 91-DIVOC (91-DIVOC, parameters are set with the link). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 22 October 2021.
*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read each answer bin carefully before making a forecast.
NOTE 10 September 2021: The question is concerned with the average over the past seven days, as reflected in the resolution source (e.g., 23.7 on 2 September 2021).
NOTE 15 October 2021: On 22 October 2021, only 7-day averages as provided by 19-DIVOC will be used for determining whether the average rose above 28.5 or below 18.5.
|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours|
|Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts||5.00%||+5.00%|
|Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts||1.00%||-3.00%|
|No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts||94.00%||-2.00%|
|No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts||0.00%||+0.00%|