The Economist and belikewater ask:
When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?
Closed Dec 26, 2021 03:00PM UTC
The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last breached 200,000 on 18 January 2021. Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 6 May 2022.
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The question closed "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021" with a closing date of 26 December 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 November 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021 | 100% | |
| Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022 | 0% | |
| Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022 | 0% | |
| Not before 1 May 2022 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 122 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 674 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
