How many business applications will be made in the US in 2022?

Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 (CBS News, Bloomberg, Economic Innovation Group). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau, parameters are set with the link, Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology).

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NOTE 8 December 2022: The Census Bureau has changed the setup of its page with business application data. To retrieve the data, click here: Census Bureau - Revised Link to Data.


The question closed "More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 4.2 million 6%
Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive 1%
More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million 93%
Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive 0%
More than 6.0 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 421
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.082
2.
-0.068
3.
-0.061
4.
-0.054
5.
-0.04

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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