In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?
Closed Jun 23, 2022 02:30PM UTC
Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a "proper cause" for obtaining the license (Oyez). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment (SCOTUSblog). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court (Casetext, Supreme Court). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 (Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 June 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 81.50% | |
No | 18.50% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 54 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
Number of Forecasts | 183 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |