Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund ("HI," aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?
Closed Jun 02, 2022 02:00PM UTC
The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report, see page 6 in the report).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 2 June 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 78.00% | |
| No | 22.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 26 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 39 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
