The Economist asks:

What will be Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization on 31 May 2022?

Started Oct 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Facebook has come under renewed scrutiny with the leak of thousands of internal corporate documents (NPR). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by CNBC (CNBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Less than $600 billion" with a closing date of 31 May 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $600 billion 100%
Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive 0%
More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion 0%
Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive 0%
More than $1.35 trillion 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 169
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1281
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.635
2.
-0.492
3.
-0.392
4.
-0.378
5.
-0.326

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username