Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?

Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 30, 2022 09:00PM UTC

While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue (The Block, CP24, MarketWatch). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count (Investopedia - Stablecoin, Investopedia - CBDC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.48%
No 99.52%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 109
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 470
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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