Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?
Closed Dec 30, 2022 09:00PM UTC
While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue (The Block, CP24, MarketWatch). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count (Investopedia - Stablecoin, Investopedia - CBDC).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.48% | |
| No | 99.52% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 109 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 470 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
