Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?

Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Taiwan, under the name of "The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu," and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Bloomberg, Brookings Institute, Diplomat). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom (Institute for Government, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Global Affairs Canada). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, but only for the PRC 0%
Yes, but only for Taiwan 0%
Yes, for both 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 193
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.058
2.
-0.058
3.
-0.058
4.
-0.058
5.
-0.058

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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