Started Oct 15, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 09, 2022 03:00AM UTC

Chrisp, 024_andrew, belikewater, and David Epstein ask:

Which party will win control of the US Senate in the 2022 midterm elections?

As of 15 October 2021, 34 seats in the US Senate were up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the Senate in the 2020 elections (270 to Win). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.

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The question closed "Democratic Party" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Party 41%
Republican Party 59%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 544
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 2015
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.842
2.
-0.801
3.
-0.77
4.
-0.746
5.
-0.745

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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