Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?

Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (, Canadian Real Estate, Bloomberg, Toronto Star). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome  determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 (Colliers Canada). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% (Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019, Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 5.0% 7%
Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive 1%
Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0% 16%
Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive 72%
Higher than 11.0% 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 37
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 298
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username