The Economist and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:
What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?
Closed Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows (CNBC, Car and Driver). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).
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The question closed "Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)" with a closing date of 1 June 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 100.0 (thousands) | 95% | |
Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive | 5% | |
More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands) | 0% | |
Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive | 0% | |
More than 700.0 (thousands) | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 151 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 593 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |