Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Deutsche Welle, France 24, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.

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NOTE 5 August 2022: Drones and unmanned aerial vehicles would count as "aircraft."


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 21.19%
No 78.81%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 245
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 995
Average for questions older than 6 months: 678
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.195
3.
-0.195
4.
-0.194
5.
-0.193

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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