Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?
Closed Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Deutsche Welle, France 24, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 5 August 2022: Drones and unmanned aerial vehicles would count as "aircraft."
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21.19% | |
| No | 78.81% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 245 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 995 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
