Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?

In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the "17+1" initiative into "16+1" (Taipei Times, China Daily). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (Politico.eu).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
0 100.00% +1.00% +1.00% +3.00%
1 or 2 0.00% -1.00% -1.00% -3.00%
3 or 4 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
5 or more 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username