Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?
Closed Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the "17+1" initiative into "16+1" (Taipei Times, China Daily). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (Politico.eu).
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The question closed "0" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | |
| 1 or 2 | 0% | |
| 3 or 4 | 0% | |
| 5 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 48 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 203 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
