Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?

Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 (China Ministry of Commerce, Atlantic Council, ANI News, GCC). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, BBC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.08%
No 99.92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 58
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 223
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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