Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?

China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries (Diplomat, AP). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count (Reuters). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as "yes" (BBC).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 44.00% +0.00% +0.00% +2.00%
No 56.00% -0.00% -0.00% -2.00%

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