Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues (Power Technology, McKinsey). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year (TEDB - Edition 39 (2021), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).
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The question closed "More than 5.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
(The pertinent edition of the TEDB has not been published, but we received the relevant data for resolution directly from Oak Ridge National Laboratory.)
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 2.0% | 1% | |
Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive | 7% | |
More than 3.0% but less than 4.0% | 9% | |
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive | 10% | |
More than 5.0% | 73% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 99 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 508 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |