Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2022?

After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, China is facing new disruptions to its economy (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined when the relevant data for 2Q 2022 are first released, scheduled for July 2022.

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The question closed "Less than 4.0%" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 4.0% 97%
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 3%
More than 5.0% but less than 6.0% 0%
Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 7.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 343
Average for questions older than 6 months: 682
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.403
2.
-0.332
3.
-0.304
4.
-0.292
5.
-0.278

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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