Started Nov 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 20, 2022 02:00PM UTC

The Economist asks:

When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 12 billion worldwide?

With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide (Economist). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times (Financial Times). Scroll to the section "Vaccination doses administered..." For location enter "World," then click the boxes "Raw numbers," "Cumulative," and "Total doses." The value and date will appear when hovering over the "World" line in the resulting graphic (Financial Times, parameters are set with the link).

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NOTE 14 April 2022: The question would close as of the date for which 12 billion were first reported by the named source, not necessarily the date on which 12 billion were first reported. For example, if on 15 August 2022 the source reports 12 billion was reached on 13 August 2022, the question would close as of 13 August 2022.


The question closed "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022" with a closing date of 20 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 April 2022 0%
Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022 0%
Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022 100%
Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022 0%
Not before 1 October 2022 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 180
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 950
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.42
2.
-0.408
3.
-0.4
4.
-0.391

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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