The Economist asks:
When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 12 billion worldwide?
Closed Jun 20, 2022 02:00PM UTC
With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide (Economist). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times (Financial Times). Scroll to the section "Vaccination doses administered..." For location enter "World," then click the boxes "Raw numbers," "Cumulative," and "Total doses." The value and date will appear when hovering over the "World" line in the resulting graphic (Financial Times, parameters are set with the link).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 14 April 2022: The question would close as of the date for which 12 billion were first reported by the named source, not necessarily the date on which 12 billion were first reported. For example, if on 15 August 2022 the source reports 12 billion was reached on 13 August 2022, the question would close as of 13 August 2022.
The question closed "Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022" with a closing date of 20 June 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 1 April 2022 | 0% | |
Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022 | 0% | |
Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022 | 100% | |
Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022 | 0% | |
Not before 1 October 2022 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 180 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 950 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |