On 3 November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced it will taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities begun early in the pandemic (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). In its 3 November statement, the FOMC stated that "the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook" (Federal Reserve - November 2021 Statement). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Committee has decided it will conclude the asset purchase program (e.g., 2014 Federal Reserve - October 2014 Statement). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations would be immaterial (NY Fed).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Before 4 May 2022" with a closing date of 26 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.