Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?

Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 21, 2022 04:28PM UTC

The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Diplomat). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (Belt and Road Portal [in Mandarin], Council on Foreign Relations). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., France 24).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "7 or more" with a closing date of 12 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 0%
1 or 2 0%
3 or 4 0%
5 or 6 2%
7 or more 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.715
2.
-0.656
4.
-0.45
5.
-0.432

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username