Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?
Closed Jan 21, 2022 04:28PM UTC
The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Diplomat). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (Belt and Road Portal [in Mandarin], Council on Foreign Relations). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., France 24).
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The question closed "7 or more" with a closing date of 12 January 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
0 | 0% | |
1 or 2 | 0% | |
3 or 4 | 0% | |
5 or 6 | 2% | |
7 or more | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 39 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 106 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |