Started Nov 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?

Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US (CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private," expected on 4 November 2022 (FRED, adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
An increase of less than 2.0% 2%
An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive 6%
An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0% 11%
An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive 50%
An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0% 29%
An increase of 6.0% or more 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 122
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 510
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.151
2.
-0.12
3.
-0.12
4.
-0.12
5.
-0.118

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username