Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What percentage of South Africa's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 September 2022?

The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data as reported by Our World in Data for the "People fully vaccinated" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 2 September 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF. For example, South Africa's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 24.25%. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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NOTE 14 June 2022: The "People fully vaccinated" metric is now called "Share of people with a complete initial protocol." The full percentage appears by hovering your cursor over the chart.


The question closed "Less than 35.00%" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 35.00% 94%
Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive 7%
More than 50.00% but less than 65.00% 0%
Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive 0%
More than 80.00% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 273
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.319
2.
-0.301
3.
-0.297
4.
-0.276
5.
-0.261

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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