The Economist asks:
Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?
Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (Economist, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 16 June 2022.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Number of Forecasters||179|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 257|
|Number of Forecasts||694|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 686|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|