Started Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 16, 2022 10:00PM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?

Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (Economist, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 16 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 80.00%
No 20.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 179
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 694
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.004
2.
-0.969
3.
-0.958
4.
-0.958
5.
-0.94

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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