Started Dec 23, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

When will the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 165 million?

There's a renewed push in the US to get COVID-19 vaccine booster shots in as many vaccinated people as possible (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, click the "Booster Doses***" title on the table). For historical data, visit https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi/unsk-b7fc, click "Export," and select your file preference. See "US" for "Location," and booster doses are labeled "Additional_Doses" in the file. As of the launch of this question, the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 41,933,410. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "Not before 1 July 2022" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 February 2022 0%
Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022 0%
Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022 0%
Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022 0%
Not before 1 July 2022 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 136
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 346
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.021
2.
-0.02
3.
-0.017
4.
-0.017
5.
-0.014

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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