Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Economist, Axios, Slate). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in July 2022, typically released in the first week of the month (FAO, see table near bottom of page).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "More than 150.0" with a closing date of 1 July 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 120.0 0%
Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive 0%
More than 130.0 but less than 140.0 0%
Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive 0%
More than 150.0 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 192
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 851
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.473
3.
-0.44
4.
-0.413
5.
-0.406

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username