Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?

The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention (Economist, CNBC, Global Landscapes Forum). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts through 30 September 2022 exceeds the total through 30 September 2021 (Global Fire Emissions Database). Through 30 September for 2021, the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts totaled 198,341.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 6 August 2022: We are aware of the issue with data for 14-28 July. We reached out to NASA and made initial contact. The question will remain open for the time being, and we will keep you informed.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 80.50% -2.00% -3.50% -5.50%
No 19.50% +2.00% +3.50% +5.50%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username