Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?
Closed Mar 30, 2022 02:19PM UTC
While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (Deutsche Welle, 38 North). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 March 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 100.00% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 93 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 334 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |