Before 1 January 2023, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?

Started Jan 21, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Amid high tensions between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine and other matters, gas giant Gazprom is awaiting regulatory approval to begin delivering natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Politico.eu, S&P Global). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.43%
No 98.57%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 360
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1505
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.036509
2.
-0.036509
3.
-0.036002
4.
-0.035545
5.
-0.033253

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username