asks:
Before 1 January 2023, will the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom elect a new leader?
Started
Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 02, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 02, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Challenges
Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the wake of various scandals (Sky News, The National). The current rules for electing the leader of the Conservative Party were introduced in 1998 (Parliament.uk, Conservative Party Constitution, see Schedule 2).
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The question closed "Yes, Liz Truss" with a closing date of 2 September 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, Michael Gove | 0% | |
| Yes, Jeremy Hunt | 1% | |
| Yes, Sajid Javid | 0% | |
| Yes, Priti Patel | 0% | |
| Yes, Dominic Raab | 0% | |
| Yes, Rishi Sunak | 19% | |
| Yes, Liz Truss | 79% | |
| Yes, Tom Tugendhat | 0% | |
| Yes, Nadhim Zahawi | 0% | |
| Yes, someone else | 1% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 195 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1218 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
