Started Feb 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US core Consumer Price Index for August 2022?

Core inflation is the change in the prices of goods and services with food and energy excluded (Economist, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using unadjusted data as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, expected in September 2022 (BLS, select "All items less food and energy). For August 2021, the 12-month percentage change was 4.0% (BLS CPI Report - August 2021, see Table A under "Unadjusted 12-mos. ended Aug. 2021").

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The question closed "Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.5% 0%
Between 2.5% and 4.0%, inclusive 2%
More than 4.0% but less than 5.5% 8%
Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive 75%
More than 7.0% 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 177
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 736
Average for questions older than 6 months: 678
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.145
3.
-0.134
4.
-0.132
5.
-0.13

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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