The Economist asks:

Who will win the next Kenyan presidential election?

Started Feb 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 09, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Kenyans are preparing for what is expected to be a competitive presidential race in 2022 (Economist, Council on Foreign Relations). The next presidential election is scheduled for 9 August 2022 (Economist). The question would close upon officially announced results of the general election, irrespective of judicial intervention ordering a revote as took place in 2019 (BBC).

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NOTE 25 July 2022: If the election is postponed to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be reset to accommodate the new date. If the election is postponed beyond 2022 or canceled, the question would be voided.


The question closed "William Ruto" with a closing date of 9 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Raila Odinga 65%
William Ruto 35%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 276
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.557
2.
-0.521
3.
-0.496
4.
-0.471
5.
-0.314

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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