Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual rate of inflation in the European Union reach or exceed 4.0% in December 2022?

Started Feb 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Inflation is rising around the world, and the European Union is no exception (IMF, National World). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the EU, as first reported by Eurostat for "European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)" (Eurostat). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for November 2021 (2021M11) was 5.2%.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.00%
No 4.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 138
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 254
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003
2.
-0.003
3.
-0.003
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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