What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?

Started Mar 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 24 February 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.1%. The data for 31 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 5 August 2022.

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The question closed "Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 35.0% 0%
Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive 100%
Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0% 0%
Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 50.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 822
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.3
2.
-0.297
3.
-0.23
4.
-0.227
5.
-0.226

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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