Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities?
Closed Sep 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, concerns have been raised regarding potential Russian cyberattacks (Fortune, Deutsche Welle, Just Security, National Interest). The attribution statement, the fatality, and at least part of the attack must all occur during the question's open period, but the end date of the question will be determined by the date of the fatality.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 September 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 3.85% | |
No | 96.15% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 170 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 606 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |