Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities?

Started Mar 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, concerns have been raised regarding potential Russian cyberattacks (Fortune, Deutsche Welle, Just Security, National Interest). The attribution statement, the fatality, and at least part of the attack must all occur during the question's open period, but the end date of the question will be determined by the date of the fatality.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.85%
No 96.15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 170
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 606
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005
5.
-0.005

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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