Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 8 November 2022?
Closed Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for greater NATO involvement in the defense of Ukraine (BBC, CBS News). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.95% | |
| No | 97.05% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 229 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1035 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
