David Epstein asks:

Between 11 March 2022 and 9 September 2022, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?

Started Mar 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 10, 2022 07:01AM UTC

As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (Defense News, The Hill, Atlantic Council).

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NOTE 8 July 2022: Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.32%
No 96.68%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 254
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 886
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017
2.
-0.017
3.
-0.017
4.
-0.017

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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