As inflation rages globally, there is speculation that the ECB could raise interest rates as soon as this year (US News & World Report, NASDAQ). The outcome will be determined using press releases from the ECB on "Monetary policy decisions" (ECB - Press Releases). As of the launch of this question, the ECB's "Deposit facility" rate was -0.5% (ECB - Key ECB Interest Rates). The ECB meeting calendar may be found here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html. The question would close as of the date of the announcement, not the date the raise would take effect (e.g., ECB - Press Release 10 March 2016).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022" with a closing date of 21 July 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.