On 10 March 2022, the ECB announced it would end APP in the third quarter of 2022 if certain conditions were met (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using press releases from the ECB on "Monetary policy decisions" (ECB - Press Releases). In its 10 March 2022 statement, the ECB stated that "Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect its evolving assessment of the outlook. If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases, the Governing Council will conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter." (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Governing Council has decided it will conclude the APP (e.g., the ECB announced in December 2021 that it would discontinue its Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) at the end of March 2022 (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 16 December 2021, Politico)). Conditional announcements (e.g., "If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases") would not count. The ECB meeting calendar may be found here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 9 June 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.