David Epstein asks:
What will be the value of the Green Markets Weekly North American Fertilizer Price Index for the week from 2 December 2022?
Started
Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 02, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Closed Dec 02, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Fertilizer costs in the US have skyrocketed to historic highs in recent months (Farm Bureau, CNBC, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Green Markets (Green Markets).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 700.00 and 900.00, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 December 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 700.00 | 6% | |
| Between 700.00 and 900.00, inclusive | 85% | |
| More than 900.00 but less than 1,100.00 | 8% | |
| Between 1,100.00 and 1,300.00, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 1,300.00 but less than 1,500.00 | 0% | |
| Between 1,500.00 and 1,700.00, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 1,700.00 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 64 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 399 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
