Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?
Closed Sep 14, 2022 02:00AM UTC
Armenia and Azerbaijan most recently battled over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, with periodic skirmishes since despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Eurasianet, Deutsche Welle). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 September 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54.71% | |
| No | 45.29% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 94 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 312 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
