Started Apr 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2022 02:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop and David Epstein ask:

Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?

High inflation, monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns over economic growth in the US this year (CNBC, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for Q3 and Q4 of 2022 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA’s third estimate for Q4 2022 (FRED, BEA). The question would close "No" if the third estimate for Q3 2022 indicates no US real GDP contraction.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 37.02%
No 62.98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 150
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 1064
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.138
2.
-0.138
4.
-0.138
5.
-0.138

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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