Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 30, 2022 08:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 November 2022?

A slew of factors, including inflation, interest rates, and the war in Ukraine, have pushed equities down from record highs at the beginning of the year (Investing.com, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED).

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The question closed "Between 3,900 and 4,175, inclusive" with a closing date of 30 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3,900 19%
Between 3,900 and 4,175, inclusive 79%
More than 4,175 but less than 4,450 2%
Between 4,450 and 4,725, inclusive 0%
More than 4,725 but less than 5,000 0%
5,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 132
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1024
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.186
2.
-0.12
4.
-0.105

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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