David Epstein asks:

What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 14 November 2022?

Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 14, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Oil prices are being pushed and pulled by a number of factors, from production limits and Russian sanctions to post-COVID recovery concerns (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED).

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The question closed "More than $85.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel" with a closing date of 14 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $70.00 per barrel 0%
Between $70.00 and $85.00 per barrel, inclusive 4%
More than $85.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel 81%
Between $100.00 and $115.00 per barrel, inclusive 15%
More than $115.00 but less than $130.00 per barrel 0%
$130.00 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 699
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.191
3.
-0.178
4.
-0.159
5.
-0.141

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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