David Epstein asks:
Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 November 2022?
Closed Nov 25, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Ukrainian forces have blunted Russian ambitions in its invasion of Ukraine, but the war in the country continues (CNN, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Newsweek). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 25 November 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 2.14% | |
No | 97.86% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 398 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 975 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |