David Epstein asks:

Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 November 2022?

Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 25, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Ukrainian forces have blunted Russian ambitions in its invasion of Ukraine, but the war in the country continues (CNN, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Newsweek). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 25 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.14%
No 97.86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 398
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 975
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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