David Epstein asks:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (AP, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "All items" in January 2023 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.
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The question closed "Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 3.5% | 2% | |
| Between 3.5% and 5.0%, inclusive | 3% | |
| Higher than 5.0% but lower than 6.5% | 10% | |
| Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive | 80% | |
| Higher than 8.0% but lower than 9.5% | 5% | |
| 9.5% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 112 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 631 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 637 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
