Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 15, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

As of 15 July 2022, how many refugees will have fled Ukraine since 24 February 2022, according to UNHCR?

Millions of Ukrainians have fled their country since Russia invaded in February 2022, with millions more internally displaced (BBC, UNHCR - Ukraine situation: Flash Update #7). The question will be suspended on 15 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) agency on 19 July 2022 (UNHCR - Ukraine Refugee Situation).

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NOTE 6 June 2022: There appears to be some confusion as to which figures currently reported by UNHCR relate to this question. As of 6 June 2022, the relevant figure is "Border crossings from Ukraine (since 24 February 2022)*."


The question closed "Between 8.8 million and 10.0 million" with a closing date of 16 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 6.4 million 0%
Between 6.4 million and 7.6 million, inclusive 0%
More than 7.6 million but fewer than 8.8 million 0%
Between 8.8 million and 10.0 million 100%
More than 10.0 million but fewer than 11.2 million 0%
Between 11.2 million and 12.4 million, inclusive 0%
More than 12.4 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 119
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 596
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 541
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.335
2.
-0.326
3.
-0.324
4.
-0.272
5.
-0.251

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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