Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022?

US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including US monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (AP, Investopedia - CPI, Investopedia - Core Inflation). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for "All items less food and energy" in November 2022 (BLS, select "All items less food and energy"). For October 2021, the change was 4.6%.

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The question closed "Between 6.0% and 7.5%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 3.0% 0%
Between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 4.5% but lower than 6.0% 7%
Between 6.0% and 7.5%, inclusive 74%
Higher than 7.5% but lower than 9.0% 17%
9.0% or higher 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 885
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.109
2.
-0.107
3.
-0.097
4.
-0.091
5.
-0.085

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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