Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?

After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (AP, CNN). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.38%
No 97.62%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 224
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1423
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.376
3.
-0.376
4.
-0.372
5.
-0.371

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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